A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
