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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still