War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".